Thursday, August 17, 2006

PS3 as #1? Uh, Not So Much

Analysts have proven yet again that none of them were at E3 this year. 1Up has this story that discusses findings by The Yankee Group where they speculate that the PS3 will be numero uno this generation, with the Xbox 360 right behind it, and the Wii a distant third.

Pardon me while I snicker. Loudly. With great enthusiasm.

Anyone that was at the final E3 knows Sony had a disasterous showing. It was an absolute disgrace bordering on the level of Biblical regarding how epic a failure it was for them as a company and for the PS3 as a piece of hardware. This generation will set dividing lines among console gamers moreso than it will establish which brand will reign universally supreme.

Japan is Sony country pure and simple. I think the PS3 will absolutely kick butt in Japan, followed closely by the Wii. Microsoft may as well not even try to get into Japan anymore because no one there cares about the Xbox brand, period. My intuition regarding the shortages once the 360 was released was due in part to resources being diverted to the Japan launch because Microsoft actually believed it still had a chance there.

Uh, not really chief. But thank you for playing.

As I've said in the past, this next generation is going to see Microsoft take over the North American market and most of Europe, which will actually be shared with Nintendo's resurgence. Nintendo will absolutely be second at the very least in Japan and if they hit a sub-$200 price point on release, they could well be number one in the US as well as Europe. Every single person that has played with the Wii is sold on it. Absolutely everyone I know that has heard anything about it wants to play with it right this second. The 360 is a close second among them as to which console they want sharing shelf space with the Wii.

I hope to God that Nintendo doesn't take as long as it usually does between first-generation releases as it normally does, but even if that remains the case at least I'll be able to download N64 games on back and buy GameCube titles I missed. Every single Zelda game, Eternal Darkness, the Mario games, and the Metroid series are insta-buys for me. That's several games right there, and I haven't even touched the original Wii content.

Sony as the first place? Not even close. Take the projected Sony and Nintendo numbers and reverse them and you have how this generation will close out. Not the other way around.

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